I read a book one time that was based on the theory that every leader has a constituency that must be satisfied in order to remain in power. You could almost compare this to feeding young calves out in the pasture with entrance bars that prevent the rest of the herd from eating while the favored calves can have access.
In a democracy, constituencies have to be large enough to get elected and then must be rewarded, but enough scraps have to be tossed to the opposition to keep them sullen but not mutinous. This is why in Western countries change comes slowly rather than radically.
In Totalitarian regimes such as Russia, China, Iran
OBSERVANCES
Frank W. Steele
and Venezuela you have to determine what is the group that supports the leader and how are they rewarded. In Venezuela the army keeps Madura in power and gets the good food, monthly pay and decent places to live. The same in Iran except the top clerical leaders along with their shock troops, the Revolutionary Guards, get all the goodies.
We just saw this concept in real time in the last few days in the prisoner swap with Russia. Putin’s constituency, that keeps him in power, is the intelligence apparatus that came out of the old Soviet Union’s KGB. It was assumed for some time it was the billionaire Oligarchs who Putin allowed to steal all of Russia’s wealth was his base of support. But when they began to question the war in Ukraine, a few prison sentences and assassinations by intelligence agents taught them a lesson about who runs the show.
The main reason for Putin’s agreement to the prisoner swap was one of his intelligence agents, who carried out an assassination for him in Germany, was serving a lifetime sentence in a German prison. Putin could have cared less about him, but then if he did not keep the intelligence community happy in Russia life could become more difficult for him.
